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US CPI July 2025
The much anticipated US CPI report came in as expected, wrong -footing all of the commentators still desperately hoping for inflation. Headline slightly lower, core slightly higher. Markets didn't care and rallied hard.
UK Unemployment June 2025
UK had a very positive employment change but earnings still way above target. Yet the Bank of England is cutting rates, seeing through the noise.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its long-term outlook for productivity growth and warned that the economy is incapable of sustainably growing faster than 2 per cent per year, in a grim reality check just one week before Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ Economic Reform Roundtable.
RBA Rate Cut
The RBA lowered the official cash rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down from 3.85% to 3.60%, a two‑year low.
This marks the third rate cut in 2025, following identical reductions in February and May.
Why Did They Do It?
The decision was driven by slowing inflation—headline inflation eased to around 2.1%, and the RBA’s preferred "trimmed mean" measure is now close to the midpoint of its 2–3% target range.
A weaker labour market played a role too: unemployment rose to 4.3%, suggesting looser conditions where less restrictive monetary policy would help.
Central Bank's Messaging & Future Outlook
The RBA signalled it remains data-dependent, proceeding cautiously and assessing each meeting individually before deciding on further easing.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed the cut, calling it a "good day" for homeowners. He noted the cumulative rate cuts are easing cost-of-living pressures—potentially saving borrowers around $330 a month (or nearly $4,000 a year) on a $700,000 mortgage.
10 year rates actually went up today despite all the cheering from the equity markets.
US Equities
Restaurant chains feel the pinch as US consumers tighten their belts [FT]
President Trump says other US cities could be next as he deploys National Guard to DC [USA Today]
White House downplays expectations for Trump-Putin Alaska summit [FT]
A reprieve for BTC after CPI and we're still at the all time daily close high. Getting through the double top will be tough immediately but think of all the stops above $125k now. When we do run those stops, we'll hit $140k pretty quickly.
Silver, and Gold, recovering from Monday's big drop after White House clarified no tariffs on bars.
DXY still faltering and forming a bear flag for another run at uptrend support.
New all time highs for equities but it's difficult to see the near term momentum trigger as 3 rate cuts this year already priced in.
Rates still ticked higher despite CPI. What happens when rate cuts eventuate?
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily