Limit Up! --> Website | Substack | YouTube
Economic Indicators
Has China finally hit rock bottom and the only way is up? Apparently the rise in CPI was due to holiday spending so the jury is still out. Judging by the PPI number, deflation is continuing.
Michigan survey shows US Consumer Sentiment lowest in 3 years, with inflation expectations rising. Not a good combination.
US Equities
Fed Says Vulnerabilities Tied to Financial Leverage ‘Notable’
Fed's Williams: Fed may soon need to expand balance sheet for liquidity needs [Reuters]
Egan-Jones Probe Puts Private Ratings Under Microscope [Bloomberg]
Gold is bouncing nicely as conditions favour it. FED easing and the start of QE. Price needs to confirm over 4,040 trend resistance for a move back up to 4,145 where there will be more resistance. A break below double support at 3,945 spells more trouble.
Silver is looking better than Gold and breaks back into the uptrend. Above 49.35 and we can retest the all time highs.
Oil hanging in there with 66.00 strong resistance and 63.40 short-term support. Patience is a virtue.
Bitcoin is having a good day after multiple attempts to get it to to close below 100k. Still a lot of work to do. Downtrend and 200 day moving average is the first test at 110.3k.
Blackstone Is Offloading a Flopped $1.8 Billion Investment in Senior Housing [Wall St Journal]
Brookfield Properties sells downtown Denver office towers at $340M loss [Denver Post]
US Economic Indicators
Manufacturing ISMs took a step back whilst Non-manufacturing ISMs held up. ADP Employment was higher than expected but anaemic. Looks like the government shutdown will be over in the next few days. Those Nonfarm payrolls are going to be super interesting.
Meanwhile reports of a stock market crash seem to misplaced currently. One red candle in 7 isn't much of a bear market. FED looks poised to support all markets as Powell's friends in the FOMC are all for more cuts.
S&P 500 Monthly
China Economic Indicators
For the first time since March, exports fell YoY. Looks like China ran out of buyers. Can't help feeling that like COVID, it all begins in Asia.
Stock markets are below 2020 levels and the Hang Seng's last 7 months are eerily reminiscent of S&P 500.
HANG SENG Monthly
EU Economic Indicators
Nothing happening in Europe, and the DAX is looking distinctly weak.
DAX Monthly
UK Economic Indicators
No change in interest rates this week but the UK is in favour again for investors as assets look cheap.
The FTSE is certainly a winner at the moment.
FTSE Monthly
Canada Economic Indicators
Confusing employment data as Canada sheds full time jobs. The TSX is also predicting currency weakness, USD/CAD moving higher since July.
TSX Monthly
Japan Economic Indicators
The Japanese economy doesn't seem to be doing much yet a massive rise in the Nikkei 250 last month. The currency has been falling and yields rising. Stock prices are telling us that the currency is going lower,
NIKKEI 225 Monthly
Another good CPI may arrive this week but we already know it will be good, right? Markets will move to be fully focused on FED and QE. The last cheer of the year.