Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Overnight
A quiet Friday night numbers wise apart from Canada retail sales in the negative, unsurprising given the current political climate.
US equities managed to have an up week for the first time for a month, possibly saved by large option expiries.
World Equities
Breaking
Turkey spends record $12bn defending lira after Erdoğan rival’s arrest [FT]
As traditional markets go fully risk off, then emerging markets will fall. That's the age old framework and it's working again.
We'll already seen the Reserve Bank of India forced to defend it's currency but now here comes Turkey and Indonesia
USD / TRY Daily
And that followed on in the Turkish stock markets.
BIST 100 Daily
The Indonesian stock market was down 7% at one stage on Tuesday, but has recovered a bit since then. It's in a secular decline since September so further falls seem likely.
Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index
Precious Metals
GOLD / USD Daily
Silver's price action is more negative and a move back to 31.80 support would still maintain the upwards direction. If only all the Silver bugs would stop shouting that it's going to 100 +.
SILVER / USD Daily
A Naked Short on Gold in a Country That Loves Glitter [Bloomberg]
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
BTC can't even hold the slightest gain at the moment, and with NASDAQ sentiment poor, it looks likely we'll see 75,000 before we see 90,000.
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Fintechs and crypto companies seek bank charters for growth [Reuters]
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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Good to see some wins from this mess but across the board the reckoning is nearly here as we should find out soon the status of banks' loan books.
United States
US Economic Indicators
US consumer cautiously returning, especially in real estate activity. Way too early of course, and the Trump narrative has become becalmed to some extent: tariff calendar on 2nd April, JFK papers released. If we can get Epstein and Fort Knox settled then markets can start pricing assets again. Until then it's firmly risk off.
Top execs at Freddie Mac, FHFA fired [HousingWire]
China
China Economic Indicators
It was going well this week, Chinese stock markets firmly higher with positive economic reports. Markets shrugged off the higher unemployment numbers.
But as PBoC held rates yet again, 6 months in a row now and in the midst of unprecedented crises. Authorities need to confirm the rate structure or markets will assume the stimuli are "transitory". And the price action of the Hang Seng tells us the moment of decision is nigh: broadening structure, larger candles which don't overlap and overextended time structure.
Hang Seng Daily
Japan
Japan Economic Indicators
More exports, imports were +1%, running at +11% YoY suggests the YEN is too weak. CPI seems to be stabilising in the 3.0 / 3.5 range so rates have another 3% plus to go up. But Japan can't afford to fund it's debt at that rate. Something has to break here soon as well.
Europe
EU Economic Indicators
Lower than expected CPI keeps rates cuts on the horizon and that reflects in EUR / USD. But unlike GBP / USD this rally looks to be fading and it's not yet in a trend.
EUR / USD Daily
China's Xi declines EU invitation to anniversary summit, FT reports [Reuters]
Volkswagen's Audi to cut 7,500 jobs in administration, development by 2029 [Reuters]
United Kingdom
UK Economic Indicators
Elevated but falling wages and stable employment back the rate hold from the BoE.
Cable now is in the groove, higher lows and higher highs, reflects well performing stock market and higher Gilt yields. If US markets are overvalued and there a rotation into Europe, the UK will be the first beneficiary.
GBP / USD Daily
Starmer’s Disability Benefits Cuts Set Up Latest Fight on Labour Identity [Bloomberg]
Canada
Canada Economic Indicators
Nowhere is the uncertainty greater than in Canada. Inflation is substantially higher in February and new leader Carney is rumoured to be calling an election this weekend, although it only needs to be held no later than October 20, 2025.
In any case he has cancelled the proposed tax hike, which begs the question where are you going to get the extra capital from?
Canada markets just treading water for now.
Canadian home sales post biggest decline in nearly three years [Reuters]
Fate of Hudson's Bay still up in the air as extension on liquidation plan granted until Friday [CBC]
Australia
Australia Economic Indicators
A big jobs miss and a particularly lower participation rate.
The Australian economy was treading water in 2019 and has returned to that state now, except that 10 year rates are 350bps higher.
Australia 10 Year Government Bond Daily
Highest costs, lowest speeds make NBN a financial albatross for Australia [AFR]
Australian universities losing US funding amid Donald Trump's 'America First' agenda [ABC News]
Interesting
What's Next ?
US New Home Sales and Core PCE are the economic focus this week but expect the risk off to continue until at least after 2nd April.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/23032025/indicators.jpg?width=658&height=596&name=indicators.jpg)
