Ian Reynolds
Based on a satirical map from 1870, this reprinting illustrates the tensions brewing before the start of World War 1.
Breaking
EU hits Chinese EVs with tariffs, drawing rebuke from Beijing [Reuters]
In Focus
Europe In Disarray
The European Election delivered the clarity that was greatly wanting.
Following Sunak calling a UK general election in July, voters in Europe decided they, too, had had enough. France and Germany's ruling parties were thrashed with Macron forced to call a snap election.
8 years after the landmark Brexit vote, where the UK citizens demonstrated that voting No actually works, the disintegration of Europe has begun. France's probable next leader is vocally keen on Frexit. If this transpires it's the beginning of the end for the European Union.
With their economies stagnant and facing an escalating war with Russia, some sort of leadership is required and it's in woefully short abundance. Only Giorgia Meloni from Italy has any conviction.
Christine Lagarde says ECB can keep rates on hold as long as needed [FT]
Already markets are beginning to price in the shock to come.
CAC Daily
CAC stands for Cotation Assistée en Continu, which stands for "continuous assisted trading" or "listing," and was an electronic trading system that the Paris Stock Exchange used in the 1980s and 1990s.
As we speak the G7 meeting in Italy is coming to a close, and there'll be some big announcements I would anticipate.
The G7 Summit is an international forum held annually for the leaders of the G7 member States of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US. Represented jointly by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, the EU participates in all discussions as a guest.
Pictured above with Charles Michel, President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
| Country | Leader | Title | Status |
| Italy | Giorgia Meloni | Prime Minister | Superstar |
| Canada | Justin Trudeau | Prime Minister | Unlikely to be re-elected |
| France | Emmanuel Macron | President | Called General Election |
| Japan | Fumio Kishida | Prime Minister | Presiding over currency crisis |
| United States | Joe Biden | President | Election November |
| Germany | Olaf Scholz | Chancellor | Unlikely to be re-elected |
| United Kingdom | Rishi Sunak, | Prime Minister | Called General Election |
These are the most powerful leaders in the "free world". Whatever your political persuasion, you can be sure that change is coming.
Japan
USD / YEN Daily
Statement on Monetary Policy[BoJ]
I love the BoJ policy statements. Straight to the point.
Unchanged short-term rates but "it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets"
Holding the bond market group meeting [BoJ]
"5. Topic The Bank will ask participants their opinions on the future conduct of the Bank's JGB purchases."
Having achieved the holy grail of central bank policy - "the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 2.0-2.5 percent recently" ironically Japan finds itself hostage to financial markets in a situation of their own creation.
Look at GDP !
Japan GDP Q1 2024
In The Background
FED presser - fast forward to 58.30 mins.
- Rates on hold
- Reducing QT
- GDP slowing
- Inflation slowing but still too high
- Dot plot suggests only one cut this year
- POWELL: THERE IS AN ARGUMENT THAT PAYROLLS MAY BE A BIT OVERSTATED
CPI and PPI came in slightly lower than expected, helping stock markets to rally even further, although 6 big companies are distorting the indices.
US CPI May 2024
US PPI May 2024
CRE / Regional Banks
The banking sector share prices were hit this week as the CRE crisis starts to impact bigger banks.
Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Failures on Property Pain[Bloomberg]
Market participants are warning that banks are dumping toxic debt from CRE loans
Moody's puts six U.S. regional banks on downgrade review over commercial real estate exposure [CNBC]
Bitcoin | US Election
Trump Wants Bitcoin "Made In The USA" After Hosting Mining Industry Heads [Zerohedge]
China CPI, PPI May 2024
Australia
Australia Employment May 2024
What's Next ?
- G7 statements
- RBA and BoE interest rate decisions
- Russia response to more sanctions
- NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine ?
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/indicatotrs.jpg?width=658&height=508&name=indicatotrs.jpg)
