The Japanese government nominated academic Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan governor (February 14).
The academic will succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second five-year term ends on April 8.
Japanese interest rate have been flat as a pancake for 25 years. Here's the short-term interest rate as set by BOJ
That's < 0.75% in 25 years
Rates are going higher as inflation is now at 4%. That's good for Japan after many years of deflation, but surely BOJ must be worried that it might really pick up as it has in other G7 countries.
Any overshoot in inflation and a subsequent big interest rate hike would surely kill the most indebted developed market, with the BOJ owning > 50% of the country's debt and a JGB market that doesn't even trade most days.
Every nuance of the BOJ decision and statement, due Friday, will be inspected in great detail.
Anything Uede does and says after 8 April will have a massive impact as he'll come in wanting to drive the policy and not allow markets to force a reaction from him.
It may be a great opportunity to bring Japan back in from the cold, but does Yen strengthen with higher rates as markets think ( they have to go higher even if slower than expected ), or will a currency crisis re-emerge.
It's going to get volatile.
This week we hear from Powell at
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
FED Calendar on 7 and 8 March
You can watch it here live
Lagarde, too, twice but she's not expected to talk specifically on monetary policy.
Central Banks Meetings: Australia (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday)
AND
Non-Farm Payroll on Friday, late due to the short month in February
It's been a relatively quiet week and we're all waiting for the RBA meeting on Tuesday. 25bps baked in, but maybe more.....
Lots of news around housing, cost of living as usual although house price declines seem to have stopped for the moment, with buyers stepping up to the plate at auctions.
Still Govt talk of super for building affordable housing.
AustralianSuper to fund $920 million build-to-rent Melbourne portfolio
Also collapsed freight giant Scott’s Refrigerated Logistics in the news
Scott’s receivers say they can’t guarantee supermarket deliveries
Short 0.7000
Short 0.7100
Stop 0.7225
Having hit the bottom of the daily Bollinger Bands at 0.6694, price has recovered to try to test the downtrend at 0.6816 with higher resistance of the 38.2 (retracement from low) fib from 0.8000, at 0.6873 and mid Bollinger Bands at 0.6852.
This consolidation may turn into a bear flag (we hope) and only 0.7028 invaliates.
Looking for 0.6810 at add to the previous 2 shorts.