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China Trade Balance February 2025
US Nonfarm Payroll February 2025
Underneath the headlines, weakness is found with the U6 unemployment rate jumping and participation rate falling.
The U-6 unemployment rate is a percentage that includes the total unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged workers in the United States. It also includes people who are marginally attached to the labor force and part-time employees who work for economic reasons.
The continual changing rhetoric around tariffs, Ukraine, timelines sliding and pretty much every single thing Mr T does, combined with infighting amongst key decision makers. have pushed markets to ignore the nonsense and focus on fundamentals, for a change.
Thus stock markets lower, bond yields higher, precious metals in demand, is the order of the day.
The real Mr T wouldn't put up with all the nonsense.
Musk, Rubio clashed in front of Trump during Cabinet meeting: Sources [ABC News]
China to impose extra tariffs of 10%-15% on various US products from March 10 [Reuters]
Ontario slapping 25% surcharge on U.S.-bound electricity Monday, Ford says [CBC]
Donald Trump restrains Doge as concern mounts over scale of job losses [FT]
Trump signs order to establish strategic bitcoin reserve [Reuters]
Trump Unites Canadians in Fury Against the US [Bloomberg]
Gold and Silver quiet for a change but oil is suddenly back in the spotlight. Breaking support leads to a quick move down to low twenties.
SPOT BRENT Monthly
The US strategic reserve thing disappointed the ever hopeful Bitcoiners, but in reality a country with 37T of debt can't justify buying BTC at the moment.
However it is a watershed moment for Bitcoin and it now no longer can go to zero. Will give institutions and countries confidence to proceed with their own purchases. Already a number of US states are ready to go along with Vietnam and others.
Mining is the real opportunity and building capital markets around BTC as pristine collateral.
Some buying opportunities are finally here as back to work mantra goes global, bargain prices can be found and money rotates from stock markets.
US Economic Indicators
The US economy is hanging in there. That's what Comrade Powell says anyway
Fed Chair Powell says he’s not worried about the economy amid Trump’s tariff chaos [CNN]
The DXY hit it's downside target and I feel it could consolidate as the political indecision continues.
DXY Daily
China Economic Indicators
Few indicators this week as the party was locked in a conference, the results of which are;Strategically China is just chilling, having some fun with Australia and NZ with war games. Interestingly Europe is pivotting from the US to China as it has to face the reality that it can't fund a war with Russia on it's own.
The Hang Seng loves it!
Hang Seng Daily
China plans to accelerate annual stockpiling of strategic commodities [Reuters]
Xi Prepares to Unveil China Stimulus Plan as Trade War Heats Up [Bloomberg]
Japan Economic Indicators
How low can household confidence go? And with capital spending and money supply contracting things look bad.
Yields on JGBs are accelerating higher as no-one turns up for the auctions. And there's nothing the BoJ / MoF can do.
10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Japan’s 10-Year Bond Auction Draws Weakest Demand in Decades [Bloomberg]
With core CPI at 3%, either rates need to go up a couple of percent or that CPI is going to collapse. And it won't beacuse policy has spent 30 years pushing inflation higher and it's only just at a rate it likes. So 10 year yield must go much higher. And USD / YEN lower.
Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY
The EU economy is stagnant but right now, no-one cares. There are much bigger fish to fry. ECB cuts 25bps anyway.
All change in Europe as our friend group changes.
And it is changing the political structure of the EU, because that's all it is.
Merz said the country will unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defence and infrastructure investments in a dramatic shift that upends its ironclad controls on government borrowing.
Yields of bunds jumped sharply higher and the Euro is resurgent.
EUR / USD Daily
And the Dax goes parabolic, anticipating all the money printing about to happen.
DAX Monthly
European Parliament removes curbs on lawmaker meetings with China [South China Morning Post]
UK Economic Indicators
All steady in the UK except for housing.
As Starmer and his new friends in Europe discuss funding a war against Russia, markets are asking how they would like to pay for it.
The bull flag on the monthly 10 year Gilt suggest that there is a lot of upside pressure and it could move significantly higher soon.
UK 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Certainly the strong performace of cable suggest it is pricing in such a move.
GBP / USD Daily
Canada Economic Indicators
Anything the affects Canada happens in Washington now. And outcomes change every day so markets have gone 100% risk off.
Australia Economic Indicators
Australia's economy still slipping. An election is due soon and no-one has any enthusiasm for it or any of the candidates.
If feels like just before COVID except the10 year yield is 4% higher.
Australia 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Anthony Albanese rules out April election, with federal budget set for later this month [ABC News]
Indian Stocks Post Historic Losing Streak as Global Funds Flee
US CPI and PPI will give the markets some fundamentals to focus on.
Expect BoC to have to hold as who could make a decision in the current chaos.