Bank of Japan Stuns

BoJ STUNS

The Bank of Japan stunned markets on Friday by making further moves to unwind it's decade-long QE and YCC programme.

In a lot of fuzzy technical speak they announced that they would now buy an unlimited amount of JGBs at 1.0% (up from 0.5%). Short-term rates remained at -0.1%.

Incoming Governor Ueda seems to be changing things up, informing markets better and putting in place a path to a normal capital market in Japan. For the first time in decades.

The Bank of Japan has financial markets on edge [AFR]

BOJ tweak stirs yen volatility; dollar stays down after US data [Reuters]

How does Japan's yield curve control work? [Reuters]

Why the Bank of Japan’s Surprise Policy Change Jolted Global Markets: Q&A [Bloomberg]

FED - NO RECESSION

The FED meeting's presser was a model of saying lots of nothing. The most important was that the internal economic modelling now doesn't include the word "recession".

GERMAN MANUFACTURING WORST SINCE GFC

Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index in freefall. Above 50 is expansive. This is a forward-looking indicator for a country already in recession.

Germany Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index June
Germany Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index June

RBA BoE NFP next

This week sees RBA and BoE meetings. Followed by Non-Farm Payroll. For the first time since 2006 traders will be awaiting ADP report Thursday.


In Case You Missed It

ECB hikes 25bps

FED hikes 25bps

US PCE June 2023
US PCE June 2023

US PCE came in as expected or maybe slightly lower across the board.


Australia

Australia CPI Q2 2023
Australia CPI Q2 2023
Australia Q2 PPI & Retail Sales June 2023
Australia Q2 PPI & Retail Sales June 2023

Trimmed mean and core CPI slightly lower than expected, a dreadful retails sales number and more stories of builders going bust.

There are plenty of wage rises going through.

It'll be difficult for the RBA not to hike in the global context

Sydney house prices jump 5.3pc in three months [AFR]

Chinese property developers are now fleeing Australia in droves [AFR]

Metricon terminates dozens of fixed-price contracts, stops paying some agent commission fees [ABC]


This Week's Economic Indicators [London time]

Economic Indicators Week Commencing 31 July 2023
Economic Indicators Week Commencing 31 July 2023