Ian Reynolds
Suberia Capital
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Overnight
Economic Indicators From Thursday
Aside from the employment numbers, the US economy is really beginning to crumble now. Whether you're a consumer or CEO, spending money now is not an option, you just can't until the uncertainty is over.
Meanwhile in Europe, ECB cuts 25bps. Really good presser from Ms Lagarde. Check out the question about Powell at 24.20.
Breaking
China stops buying liquefied gas from the US [FT]
Laughing Stock
Another big uncertainty for investors is now growing , and it's not Trump's demonisation of Powell.
One thing for sure is that the tweet below is not a good look. Trump has just alienated friends and enemies and is now openly fighting his own central bank. This is concerning for investors
Trump and Powell on Collision Course Without Easy Escape [Wall St Journal]
Here is the really big next uncertainty for markets to deal with:
- Central bank monetary policies rarely diverge in direction. They may not all do the same thing at the same time but the western global economy is one bigger economy which expands and contracts simultaneously. Unless, of course, one country has a really specific event to deal with.
- Central bank monetary policy is usually aligned, if not in total agreement with, fiscal policy.
- Central banks normally think the same way about structural issues.
Now, however, the bigger central banks disagree about the effects of tariffs, notably the FED (inflationary) is in sharp disagreement with the ECB (deflationary) and others.
Whilst we think that the tariff news can't have much more bad news (please) and is priced in, a public Powell / Trump stoush will be bad (the FED almost never agrees with the fiscal authorities but the disagreement is not normally a battle in public view) but if central banks can't agree on how to deal with structural shocks then the uncertainty multiplies.
Precious Metals / Commodities
Gold shifts to a new gear as the year long bull run becomes even more bullish. There are many factors influencing the price that are combining to make this a special event. Lower USD, trade war uncertainty, perceived risk in US Treasuries plus Basel 3 regulations arriving soon, where banks need to hold physical Gold rather than paper Gold.
GOLD / USD Monthly
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
Price action for Bitcoin has basically stalled as the action is happening away from it. On the monthly chart it's hard to be negative.
BITCOIN / USD Monthly
Russia should have own stablecoins, finance ministry official says [Reuters]
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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Looks as though valuations are being crystallised by transactions so we'll see how that affects US regional banks in due course.
United States
US Economic Indicators
The initial hope when Trump got in, is now waning fast.
Thanks to Corinne for this summary of Trump's behaviour, on X
Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis just dropped some hard truths about the real reason behind the U.S.-China trade war. And no, it’s not about “fair trade” — it’s about survival.
- The U.S. doesn’t fear China because of “cheap labor” or “IP theft.” What it truly fears is China’s capacity to undermine the U.S.-led global financial order — the very system that allows America to print dollars and buy the world.
- Wall Street’s aging financial architecture is losing its grip. It can’t control crypto flows. It can’t keep up with new financial ecosystems. China — with its digital yuan, vast industrial base, and rising global influence — is the first real threat to this system.
- Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” were never about balancing trade. They were a desperate attempt to slow down China’s rise and protect the dollar system from collapse. Because if China succeeds, the U.S. loses its magic weapon: monetary dominance.
- Today, Trump is laser-focused on America’s financial core: • The Treasury bond market (America’s lifeline) • The stock market (America’s wallet) Both are fragile. And any external pressure could trigger a chain reaction.
- The U.S. is now panicking over who’s selling off U.S. Treasuries. China? Japan? Others? Trump reportedly wants to punish any surplus country that dumps Treasuries — with tariffs, of course. This is not about trade. It’s about a dying empire trying to stop the bleeding.
- In short, America is no longer confident in its own financial fortress. And China is no longer playing by the old rules. This isn’t just a trade war — it’s a war for the future of global finance.
China
China Economic Indicators
Those exports will be heading towards Europe, or maybe are already in the US. Imports down 4% tells the story of a continually contracting economy which is now exporting deflation to the rest of the world.
Surprise! China and Japan actually raised their US treasury holdings in February [investing.com]
Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess [Bloomberg]
Japan
Japan Economic Indicators
Japan looks likely to be the first to get a tariff agreement but they've already agreed with South Korea and China, to deal with this on a regional basis but that seems unlikely now with the China tariffs having gone through the roof. More chaos leads to more uncertainty. Those rate hikes are firmly off the table.
10 year bond yields have dropped > 25bps and some reassessment of the chart will be needed after tariffs are formalised.
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Europe
EU Economic Indicators
Negative economically and that PPI number may put a lid on the stable CPI for a bit.
Those bund yields keep going down. Is this the beginning of a reassessment of what the global flight-to-quality asset is?
EU 10 Year Bund Yield Daily
United Kingdom
UK Economic Indicators
The good news continues for the UK and that's reflected in the currency.
GBP / USD Daily
Canada
Canada Economic Indicators
I don't think anyone knows what's going on in Canada (and Mexico) or what's going to happen in the future. Particularly Canadians.
Australia
Australia Economic Indicators
Quiet in Australia where the election next month is getting zero interest from the population.
AUD / USD Daily
The currency is getting quite the rollercoaster ride though with the dramatic sell-off and then bounce and short squeeze
Indonesia tells Australia prospect of Russian aircraft operations ‘simply not true’ [SBS]
Australia’s Tallest Skyscraper Plans Falter [Bloomberg]
What's Next ?
Lots of economic data next week but few vital ones.
We're expecting better news re tariffs, maybe the first agreement, and the Trump / Powell spat to move into the background along with all the other unanswered items: Gold in Fort Knox, Epstein etc.
Stocks might have a better week but can bonds do the same if the FED is perceived to be wrong about the inflationary aspects of tariffs.
The FED has got it wrong every single time for at least 10 years. Now the ECB is strongly differing in opinion.
Even more uncertainty.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/20042025/indicators.jpg?width=658&height=484&name=indicators.jpg)
